LRB Pinball — Linear Regression Bounce Indicator

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What is LRB Pinball?

LRB Pinball is a proprietary momentum and mean-reversion indicator developed for the DCMM system. It combines elements of linear regression analysis with bounce probability detection to identify stocks that are “bouncing off” key statistical price levels — hence the “Pinball” metaphor.

The LRB Component

LRB stands for Linear Regression Bounce. It analyzes the deviation of the current price from a statistically-calibrated linear regression channel applied to the stock’s recent price history (typically 20–50 sessions). When a stock trades significantly below its linear regression trend line, it enters “bounce territory” — the LRB Pinball activates.

How LRB Pinball Works

The indicator works in three stages:

  1. Deviation Detection: Measures how far below the linear regression trend the current price sits, in units of standard deviations of the regression residuals.
  2. Bounce Zone Classification: Classifies the current deviation into zones (Normal, Extended, Extreme) based on historical deviation distributions for this specific stock.
  3. Signal Generation: When the stock is in an Extended or Extreme bounce zone AND the DD cycle confirms a drawdown setup, LRB Pinball signals a potential “pinball bounce” — a rapid snapback toward the regression mean.

LRB Pinball Values

In the DCMM dashboard, LRB Pinball appears as a numerical value (can be blank/empty when not in bounce territory):

  • Empty/Blank: Stock is not in an LRB bounce zone. No LRB signal.
  • Small positive value: Mild deviation from regression. Weak LRB signal.
  • Large positive value: Strong deviation from regression. Strong LRB Pinball signal.

LRB Pinball as a Confirmation Indicator

LRB Pinball is used primarily as a confirmation signal, not a standalone entry trigger. When a stock already qualifies on DD/Exp Score criteria and also shows an active LRB Pinball reading, this provides an additional layer of statistical confirmation that the stock is ready to bounce.

The LRB Pinball is particularly powerful when combined with:

  • High P(Up D+1) from Historical Twins
  • Elevated Vol Ratio (volume confirms the deviation)
  • Z-Score in normal range (not an anomalous event)

Availability

LRB Pinball is available in both the Extended Access and Deep Access tiers of DCMM. In Extended Access, the LRB Pinball column provides the raw signal. In Deep Access, it is integrated with the full QDSF Engine Level 3 analytics including Exp Score and the complete probability matrix.

Practical Application

When scanning the DCMM dashboard:

  1. Filter by DD (primary setup filter)
  2. Sort by Exp Score (or P_win if Exp Score not available)
  3. Check LRB Pinball column — setups with active LRB signal move up in priority
  4. Setups with both high Exp Score AND active LRB Pinball represent the highest-conviction mean-reversion opportunities

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